Spatial Dynamics of Private Land Conservation and Use: Towards Large-Scale Hypothesis Testing

FALL 2018 RESEARCH INCUBATION AWARDEE

PI: Christoph Nolte, Assistant Professor, Earth & Environment
Co-PI: Curtis Woodcock, Professor, Earth & Environment

What is the Challenge?
Voluntary private land protection is the single largest driver for the expansion of conserved land in the United States today, but significant concerns exist regarding its cost-effectiveness. Empirical studies have not been able to generate conclusive evidence for several key questions due to constraints on Spatio-temporal resolution and coverage. Using new data of protection and 30-year land cover change on 20 million properties in the United States, this project will develop generalizable evidence for two critical questions of significant interest to conservation policy.

What is the Solution?
The project will investigate the spatial dynamics of private land protection in the United States at large scales, long terms, and find resolutions to answer the following two key questions. To which extent is the cost-effectiveness of private land conservation undermined by selection bias, i.e., the phenomenon that properties are more likely to be protected if they are less at risk of losing conservation values anyway? To which extent is the cost-effectiveness of private land conservation undermined by local spillovers, i.e., the phenomenon that protecting one property increases the likelihood of losing conservation values on adjacent properties?

What is the Process?
We will quantify selection bias and local spillovers using state-of-the-art quasi-experimental impact evaluation techniques with which the PI has extensive experience (2–4). Scaling up these techniques to national scales will involve the development of improved algorithms (current complexity: O(n2)) and efficient sampling techniques.