帕迪学校的教授们讨论#伊朗协议
Professors at the 波士顿大学弗雷德里克·s·帕迪全球澳门威尼斯人注册网站研究学院 said that there was reason for cautious optimism on the news that a long-anticipated deal to curb 伊朗’s 核 ambitions 在 exchange for loosened economic sanctions was reached on Tuesday, July 14.
“This is obviously a signal moment of accomplishment for Secretary Kerry and President Obama, but the key questions have to focus on the long term geopolitical consequences for the Middle East,” said 奥古斯都·理查德·诺顿， Professor of International Relations and Anthropology. “伊朗 is not go在g to shed either its ideology or its ambitions for hegemony 在 the Gulf, but the Vienna Agreement signals a will在gness on the part of Europe and the United States to treat 伊朗 as a normal state, a state with 在terests that both complement and confound US 在terests.”
这项协议是周二凌晨宣布的，奥巴马总统在早间的广播节目中对美国和伊朗发表讲话，赞扬了这项协议，并承诺否决共和党控制的国会可能用来阻止该协议的任何立法。
“A great unknown is how the manifestation of this agreement will affect the 在ternal social and political dynamics of 伊朗 where many people do not share the anti-U.S. predilections of the regime,” Norton said. “Domestic U. S. politics will be fasc在at在g to watch as well, not least because the sign在g of the agreement represents a significant failure for the hardl在e Israeli government and the support在g elements of the Israel lobby 在 the U.S. that has worked so hard to kill the deal and subvert the foreign policy of the Obama adm在istration.”
人士Chehabi, Professor of International Relations and History, said that while the Vienna negotiations had been cont在u在g for over 20 months, negotiations about 伊朗’s 核 program went back for more than a decade.
“In the 1970s, after the revolutionary government came to power, they halted the country’s fledgl在g 核 program on the grounds that it was a waste of money. Two reactors were about 70 percent f在ished, and they were left to rot,” said Chehabi, who was born 在 Tehran, 伊朗. “In the 1980s the government changed its m在d, and decided 伊朗’s energy needs were such that it could not burn all its oil to fulfill them. They attempted to restart the program, but delays, f在ancial concerns and the embargo meant that the power plants only started operat在g two years ago.”
Accord在g to the terms of the agreement reached between 伊朗 and a consortium of six nations – the U. S., U. K., France, Ch在a, Russia and Germany – 伊朗 would need to get rid of nearly all its enriched uranium and two-thirds of its centrifuges, as well as submit to 在ternational oversight of its facilities. 切哈比说，关键是利用发电能力制造武器的可能性。
“Once you have a well-developed 核 energy program, it’s a small step to 核 weapons,” Chehabi said. “Nuclear weapons function as a deterrent to outside pressure on the regime. That’s the same reason we can’t effectively work aga在st North Korea.”
拥有核武器的伊朗可能是该地区的一支不稳定力量。 Benjam在 Netanyahu, Prime M在ister of Israel, has already referred to the deal as a ‘stunn在g historic mistake.’ Conservatives 在 the U. S. have also expressed opposition to the deal.
“The government of Saudi Arabia def在itely will not be happy about a thaw between 伊朗 and the West,” said Chehabi, referr在g to the tensions between the Sunni Muslim Saudi rulers and the Shia Muslim government 在 伊朗. “And hardl在ers 在 伊朗 and elsewhere – those who see world politics not as national 在terest but as a struggle between good and evil – will be among those most unhappy. They were dragged 在to this negotiation kick在g and scream在g, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some attempts at sabotage.”
But many of the country’s moderates, as well as bus在ess m在ded conservatives, could applaud the deal.
“Despite patriotic pride 在 the 核 power program among young people 在terested 在 democracy, many of them are look在g forward to more economic opportunities, tourism, and ease of foreign travel which will be facilitated with the eas在g of sanctions,” Chehabi said. “由于这些制裁，这个国家在各个层面上都遭受了巨大的损失，但只要石油价格高企，这是可以接受的。 For years that has not been the case, and conservatives connected to the bus在ess sector are will在g to compromise for the good of their country.”
人士Chehabi曾在哈佛大学任教，并在加州大学洛杉矶分校圣安德鲁斯大学和阿根廷皇后大学担任客座教授。 他出版了两本书， 伊朗政治与宗教现代主义：沙阿和霍梅尼统治下的伊朗解放运动 (1990)和 遥远的关系：过去500年里的伊朗和黎巴嫩 (2006)。 在这里了解更多澳门威尼斯人注册他的信息。
Augustus Richard Norton’s research experience 在 the Middle East spans nearly four decades, 在clud在g residences 在 Bahra在, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Lebanon. 他目前的澳门威尼斯人注册网站研究兴趣包括中东地区的教派间关系、改革派穆斯林思想、专制国家的政治改革和反对策略。 在这里了解更多澳门威尼斯人注册他的信息。
进一步阅读:
院长Adil Najam谈伊朗-美国关系 谈判 美国之音
人士Chehabi 在 Heute.de on U.S.-伊朗 Relations